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Empirically speaking, the trajectory of a fly ball is perhaps the most difficult metric in sports for fans to judge. The excitement of the ballgame somehow trumps our innate ability to monitor velocity, acceleration, and most importantly, the initial angle of the ball relative to the playing field. Physics dictates the right combination of angle and speed required to take a ball to the outfield, or better yet, out of the park. Also, fans seem to forget that the fielding team has mobile players positioned to catch the ball. A ball hit to the outfield is in no way guaranteed to touch the ground or the stands.

Regardless, fans go wild for the entire flight when a ball is hit hard at a reasonable angle – even when it is apparent after a fraction of a second that the ball is either 1) not moving quickly enough, 2) headed straight toward an outfielder, or 3) traveling at too steep of an arc. The end result is heightened disappointment, since the positive emotion just prior to the out was much stronger than if the brain had properly calculated the trajectory and prevented the false assumption of a spectacular extra base hit or home run. On the other hand, the net emotional result would be much more positive if an inprobable situation had birthed a phenomenal hit. It’s all about rational expectations.

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